Sipas nj\u00eb analize t\u00eb publikuar nga The Guardian, \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs tejkaluan 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7in\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb luft\u00ebs SHBA-Izrael me Iranin, duke nxitur frik\u00ebn p\u00ebr pasojat n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore dhe rritjen e inflacionit.<\/p>\n
Ekonomist\u00ebt paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb se nj\u00eb konflikt i gjat\u00eb n\u00eb rajonin ky\u00e7 t\u00eb eksportit t\u00eb energjis\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb seriozisht n\u00eb standardet e jetes\u00ebs globalisht.<\/p>\n
Sa lart mund t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs?<\/p>\n
N\u00eb t\u00eb h\u00ebn\u00ebn, \u00e7mimi i naft\u00ebs arriti 119 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7in\u00eb, niveli m\u00eb i lart\u00eb q\u00eb nga pushtimi i Ukrain\u00ebs nga Rusia n\u00eb shkurt 2022. Analist\u00ebt paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb se mbyllja e vazhdueshme e Sundit t\u00eb Hormuzit mund ta shtyj\u00eb \u00e7mimin af\u00ebr 150 dollar\u00ebve p\u00ebr fu\u00e7in\u00eb, mbi rekordin e vitit 2008 prej 145.29 dollar\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ky kanal i ngusht\u00eb transporton nj\u00eb t\u00eb pest\u00ebn e naft\u00ebs dhe gazit t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm t\u00eb bot\u00ebs dhe nj\u00eb t\u00eb tret\u00ebn e plehrave m\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorura globalisht. Goldman Sachs thot\u00eb se bllokada e efektshme e Iranit ka ndikim 17 her\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madh se goditja maksimale e prodhimit rus t\u00eb naft\u00ebs n\u00eb prill 2022.<\/p>\n
Analist\u00ebt theksojn\u00eb se sa lart\u00eb do t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb \u00e7mimet varet nga koha e bllokad\u00ebs dhe aft\u00ebsia p\u00ebr t\u00eb devijuar eksportet. Arabia Saudite ka nisur t\u00eb drejtoj\u00eb naft\u00ebn drejt porteve t\u00eb Detit t\u00eb Kuq, por shumica e eksportuesve mbeten t\u00eb bllokuar. Depot e naft\u00ebs n\u00eb Gjirin Persik po mbushen, duke rrezikuar mbylljen e fushave t\u00eb m\u00ebdha nafte dhe duke zgjatur kriz\u00ebn energjetike.<\/p>\n
Pasojat p\u00ebr inflacionin<\/p>\n
\u00c7mimi i lart\u00eb i naft\u00ebs vjen n\u00eb nj\u00eb moment t\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm p\u00ebr ekonomin\u00eb globale. Bankat qendrore po p\u00ebrfundonin normalizimin e normave t\u00eb interesit pas ciklit m\u00eb agresiv t\u00eb fundit, por konflikti me Iranin mund t\u00eb detyroj\u00eb rritjen e normave t\u00eb huadh\u00ebnies.<\/p>\n
Rritja e kostove t\u00eb energjis\u00eb do t\u00eb ndikoje \u00e7mimet e konsumator\u00ebve, faturat e energjis\u00eb p\u00ebr familjet, dhe kostot p\u00ebr bizneset q\u00eb do t\u00eb transmetohen p\u00ebrmes zinxhir\u00ebve global\u00eb furnizimi. Megjithat\u00eb, ekspert\u00ebt shpresojn\u00eb t\u00eb shmangin inflacionin e lart\u00eb si n\u00eb vitet 1970.<\/p>\n
Jim Reid nga Deutsche Bank thekson: \u201cEkonomia globale \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb pak e ndjeshme ndaj shokut energjetik se 50 vjet m\u00eb par\u00eb. Ekonomit\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb pak t\u00eb varura nga energjia dhe tregjet e pun\u00ebs jan\u00eb m\u00eb fleksib\u00ebl.\u201d<\/p>\n
Rreziku i recesionit global<\/p>\n
Rritja e inflacionit pas pandemis\u00eb Covid dhe pushtimit t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs nga Rusia ka shtrir\u00eb familjet dhe bizneset deri n\u00eb limite. Nj\u00eb rritje e re e inflacionit mund t\u00eb ul\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn e konsumator\u00ebve dhe aktivitetin ekonomik, duke rritur rrezikun e stagflacionit \u2013 rritje \u00e7mimesh pa rritje t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ian Stewart, ekonomist kryesor i Deloitte n\u00eb MB, paralajm\u00ebron: \u201c\u00c7mimet e larta t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe gazit jan\u00eb shenja t\u00eb problemeve ekonomike. Historikisht, rritjet e energjis\u00eb kan\u00eb shkaktuar recesione n\u00eb Per\u00ebndim.\u201d<\/p>\n
Si mund t\u00eb reagojn\u00eb qeverit\u00eb?<\/p>\n
Shtetet e G7 kan\u00eb deklaruar se jan\u00eb gati t\u00eb l\u00ebshojn\u00eb rezervat emergjente t\u00eb naft\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbutur shqet\u00ebsimet e furnizimit. SHBA dhe Kina kan\u00eb rritur rezervat e tyre, nd\u00ebrsa vendet europiane, m\u00eb t\u00eb varura nga importet e energjis\u00eb, pritet t\u00eb ndihen m\u00eb shum\u00eb nga kriza.<\/p>\n
Qeverit\u00eb do t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00ebn presion p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsuar sigurin\u00eb energjetike, duke p\u00ebrshpejtuar kalimin n\u00eb ekonomi me karbon t\u00eb ul\u00ebt dhe investimet n\u00eb energji t\u00eb rinovueshme. Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e madhe e fokusit do t\u00eb jet\u00eb edhe n\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetjen financiare emergjente p\u00ebr familjet dhe bizneset e goditura nga faturat e larta t\u00eb energjis\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa nivelet e borxhit kufizojn\u00eb mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e qeverive p\u00ebr t\u00eb financuar skema t\u00eb reja.<\/p>\n
Ekspert\u00ebt paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb: \u201cKjo \u00ebsht\u00eb ndoshta kriza m\u00eb e madhe e furnizimit dhe logjistik\u00ebs s\u00eb energjis\u00eb n\u00eb historin\u00eb moderne,\u201d p\u00ebrfundon analiza e The Guardian.\/TCH<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sipas nj\u00eb analize t\u00eb publikuar nga The Guardian, \u00e7mimet e naft\u00ebs tejkaluan 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7in\u00eb p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb luft\u00ebs SHBA-Izrael me Iranin, duke nxitur frik\u00ebn p\u00ebr pasojat n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore dhe rritjen e inflacionit. Ekonomist\u00ebt paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb se nj\u00eb konflikt i gjat\u00eb n\u00eb rajonin ky\u00e7 t\u00eb eksportit t\u00eb energjis\u00eb mund t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb seriozisht n\u00eb standardet […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":229514,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-229513","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-lajme"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=229513"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229513\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":229515,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229513\/revisions\/229515"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/229514"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=229513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=229513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=229513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}