1 shtatori 1939 mbetet n\u00eb histori si dita kur Gjermania naziste pushtoi Polonin\u00eb, duke sh\u00ebnuar fillimin tradicional t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n
Dy dit\u00eb m\u00eb von\u00eb, Britania e Madhe dhe Franca i shpall\u00ebn luft\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb. Por konflikti nuk lindi brenda nj\u00eb dite. Ai ishte p\u00ebrgatitur prej vitesh, p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb serie krizash dhe luft\u00ebrash q\u00eb fillimisht dukeshin t\u00eb izoluara.<\/p>\n
Pushtimi japonez i Man\u00e7uris\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 1931, agresioni italian ndaj Etiopis\u00eb, Lufta Civile Spanjolle dhe politika ekspansioniste e Adolf Hitlerit n\u00eb Evrop\u00ebn Qendrore krijuan gradualisht nj\u00eb klim\u00eb nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare ku konfliktet rajonale nis\u00ebn t\u00eb lidhen me nj\u00ebra-tjetr\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
Sot, bota p\u00ebrballet me nj\u00eb situat\u00eb q\u00eb ngre pyetje t\u00eb ngjashme. Nga Ukraina te Lindja e Mesme, nga Tajvani te Gadishulli Korean, krizat gjeopolitike nuk po zhvillohen m\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht t\u00eb shk\u00ebputura. Aleancat, arm\u00ebt, teknologjia dhe ekonomia po krijojn\u00eb lidhje mes tyre, duke rritur rrezikun q\u00eb nj\u00eb konflikt lokal t\u00eb prodhoj\u00eb pasoja shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjera.<\/p>\n
Kur Rusia nisi pushtimin n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb t\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb vitin 2022, shum\u00ebkush parashikoi nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb rezistenc\u00ebs ukrainase. Kjo nuk ndodhi. Ukraina rezistoi, nd\u00ebrsa lufta u shnd\u00ebrrua n\u00eb nj\u00eb nga laborator\u00ebt m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdhenj t\u00eb teknologjis\u00eb ushtarake moderne.<\/p>\n
Dron\u00ebt, inteligjenca artificiale, lufta elektronike, raketat me rreze t\u00eb gjat\u00eb dhe sistemet e sofistikuara t\u00eb zbulimit kan\u00eb ndryshuar m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si zhvillohet lufta.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme, lufta pas sulmit t\u00eb Hamasit ndaj Izraelit n\u00eb vitin 2023 u shnd\u00ebrrua n\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb rajonale ku jan\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb, drejtp\u00ebrdrejt ose t\u00ebrthorazi, Izraeli, Hezbollahu, Irani, Huth\u00ebt dhe Shtetet e Bashkuara, nd\u00ebrsa shtetet e Gjirit jan\u00eb p\u00ebrballur me nj\u00eb mjedis sigurie gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb t\u00eb pasigurt.<\/p>\n
Kjo krijon nj\u00eb problem t\u00eb ri strategjik: burimet ushtarake t\u00eb Per\u00ebndimit duhet t\u00eb shp\u00ebrndahen n\u00eb disa fronte. Nj\u00eb raket\u00eb interceptuese e p\u00ebrdorur n\u00eb nj\u00eb teat\u00ebr operacionesh nuk mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoret nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr. E nj\u00ebjta gj\u00eb vlen p\u00ebr municionet, sistemet e mbrojtjes ajrore, anijet, avion\u00ebt dhe kapacitetet logjistike.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr zhvillim shqet\u00ebsues \u00ebsht\u00eb thellimi i bashk\u00ebpunimit mes Rusis\u00eb, Iranit, Kores\u00eb s\u00eb Veriut dhe Kin\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Koreja e Veriut ka mb\u00ebshtetur Rusin\u00eb me municione dhe personel, nd\u00ebrsa Moska mund t\u2019i ofroj\u00eb Phenianit teknologji dhe ekspertiz\u00eb ushtarake. Irani ka furnizuar Rusin\u00eb me teknologji dhe mjete q\u00eb jan\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur n\u00eb luft\u00ebn n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. Kina, nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, mbetet nj\u00eb burim i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm p\u00ebr komponent\u00eb elektronik\u00eb dhe teknologji me p\u00ebrdorim t\u00eb dyfisht\u00eb q\u00eb ndihmojn\u00eb industrin\u00eb ruse.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebshtu krijohet nj\u00eb sistem shk\u00ebmbimesh ku secili aktor mund t\u00eb kontribuoj\u00eb me kapacitete t\u00eb ndryshme: municione, elektronik\u00eb, dron\u00eb, inteligjenc\u00eb apo teknologji ushtarake.<\/p>\n
Rreziku b\u00ebhet edhe m\u00eb i madh n\u00ebse n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb shp\u00ebrthen n\u00eb Paq\u00ebsor.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb konflikt rreth Tajvanit nuk do t\u00eb kishte domosdoshm\u00ebrisht nevoj\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrje t\u00eb drejtp\u00ebrdrejt\u00eb ruse p\u00ebr t\u00eb krijuar probleme t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr Per\u00ebndimin. Mb\u00ebshtetja n\u00eb inteligjenc\u00eb, teknologji, l\u00ebnd\u00eb t\u00eb para apo kapacitete ushtarake do t\u00eb mjaftonte p\u00ebr ta komplikuar ndjesh\u00ebm situat\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb nga sfidat m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr Per\u00ebndimin nuk lidhet vet\u00ebm me numrin e arm\u00ebve, por me gatishm\u00ebrin\u00eb politike p\u00ebr t\u2019i p\u00ebrdorur ato.<\/p>\n
Shtetet e Bashkuara u k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb prej vitesh aleat\u00ebve evropian\u00eb t\u00eb rrisin shpenzimet p\u00ebr mbrojtjen. N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn koh\u00eb, aleat\u00ebt jan\u00eb p\u00ebrballur me pasiguri p\u00ebr t\u00eb ardhmen e garancive amerikane t\u00eb siguris\u00eb.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrplasjet tregtare dhe politike mes Uashingtonit dhe disa prej aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb tij krijojn\u00eb nj\u00eb problem q\u00eb shkon p\u00ebrtej ekonomis\u00eb. N\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb t\u00eb madhe, kohezioni i aleancave mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb po aq i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm sa fuqia ushtarake.<\/p>\n
N\u00ebse Evropa dyshon p\u00ebr angazhimin amerikan dhe SHBA-ja dyshon p\u00ebr gatishm\u00ebrin\u00eb evropiane p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbrojtur veten, kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebt mund ta shohin k\u00ebt\u00eb si nj\u00eb dob\u00ebsi strategjike.<\/p>\n
Lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb tregoi se nj\u00eb konflikt modern mund t\u00eb konsumoj\u00eb sasi t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme municionesh, raketash dhe pajisjesh. Sistemet e mbrojtjes ajrore, predhat e artileris\u00eb, pjes\u00ebt rezerv\u00eb dhe kapacitetet e mir\u00ebmbajtjes nuk mund t\u00eb prodhohen menj\u00ebher\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Per\u00ebndimi ka avantazh t\u00eb madh teknologjik dhe ekonomik, por kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se rezervat jan\u00eb t\u00eb pafundme.<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, lufta n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb ka treguar se edhe pajisjet shum\u00eb t\u00eb shtrenjta duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtaten me nj\u00eb realitet t\u00eb ri ku dron\u00ebt me kosto t\u00eb ul\u00ebt mund t\u00eb k\u00ebrc\u00ebnojn\u00eb sisteme q\u00eb kushtojn\u00eb miliona dollar\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Teknologjia po ndryshon m\u00eb shpejt sesa doktrinat ushtarake dhe kapacitetet industriale.<\/p>\n
Ekonomia globale \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr hallk\u00eb e dob\u00ebt. Nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb e thell\u00eb financiare, nj\u00eb recesion i madh, tronditje n\u00eb tregun amerikan t\u00eb obligacioneve ose nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb prej ekonomive kryesore t\u00eb bot\u00ebs mund t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb llogaritjet strategjike t\u00eb qeverive.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb periudha t\u00eb v\u00ebshtira ekonomike, demokracit\u00eb mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhen m\u00eb t\u00eb kujdesshme ndaj shpenzimeve t\u00eb jashtme dhe nd\u00ebrhyrjeve ushtarake. Regjimet autoritare, n\u00eb t\u00eb kund\u00ebrt, mund ta shohin dob\u00ebsimin ekonomik t\u00eb kund\u00ebrshtar\u00ebve si nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi p\u00ebr t\u00eb vepruar.<\/p>\n
Kjo nuk do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb ekonomike \u00e7on automatikisht n\u00eb luft\u00eb. Por ajo mund t\u00eb ndryshoj\u00eb ekuilibrin politik dhe strategjik.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb Luft\u00eb e Tret\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore nuk ka pse t\u00eb filloj\u00eb me nj\u00eb pushtim t\u00eb vet\u00ebm dhe nj\u00eb shpallje zyrtare lufte. Mund t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtohet gradualisht.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb konflikt n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb mund t\u00eb lidhet me nj\u00eb luft\u00eb n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme. Nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb rreth Tajvanit mund t\u00eb hap\u00eb nj\u00eb front t\u00eb ri n\u00eb Paq\u00ebsor. Sulmet kibernetike dhe lufta ekonomike mund t\u00eb shoq\u00ebrojn\u00eb konfliktet ushtarake. Arm\u00ebt dhe teknologjit\u00eb mund t\u00eb kalojn\u00eb nga nj\u00eb teat\u00ebr lufte n\u00eb tjetrin.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb skenar, kufiri mes luft\u00ebs dhe paqes b\u00ebhet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb i paqart\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ngjashm\u00ebria me vitet para Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore nuk q\u00ebndron n\u00eb faktin se historia po p\u00ebrs\u00ebritet identikisht. Bota e sotme \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e nd\u00ebrlidhur dhe fuqit\u00eb b\u00ebrthamore e b\u00ebjn\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje direkte shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme.<\/p>\n
Por m\u00ebsimi historik mbetet i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm: krizat q\u00eb duken t\u00eb menaxhueshme kur shihen ve\u00e7mas mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhen shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme kur fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb lidhen me nj\u00ebra-tjetr\u00ebn.<\/p>\n
Pyetja sot nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse nj\u00eb Luft\u00eb e Tret\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore ka filluar. Nuk ka nj\u00eb luft\u00eb t\u00eb till\u00eb globale. Pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse bota po krijon gradualisht kushtet q\u00eb nj\u00eb seri konfliktesh rajonale t\u00eb mund t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohen n\u00eb nj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Dhe pik\u00ebrisht k\u00ebtu q\u00ebndron shqet\u00ebsimi m\u00eb i madh, n\u00ebse krizat fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb bashkohen, mund t\u00eb vij\u00eb nj\u00eb moment kur kontrolli i tyre t\u00eb b\u00ebhet shum\u00eb m\u00eb i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
1 shtatori 1939 mbetet n\u00eb histori si dita kur Gjermania naziste pushtoi Polonin\u00eb, duke sh\u00ebnuar fillimin tradicional t\u00eb Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore. Dy dit\u00eb m\u00eb von\u00eb, Britania e Madhe dhe Franca i shpall\u00ebn luft\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb. Por konflikti nuk lindi brenda nj\u00eb dite. Ai ishte p\u00ebrgatitur prej vitesh, p\u00ebrmes nj\u00eb serie krizash dhe luft\u00ebrash q\u00eb fillimisht […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":242365,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"tmauthors":[136],"class_list":["post-242364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-lajme"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=242364"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242364\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":242366,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242364\/revisions\/242366"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/242365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=242364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=242364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=242364"},{"taxonomy":"tmauthors","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/radiostargjilan.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tmauthors?post=242364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}